The Ryan Suter has no value aka value for puck movers thread

[Nick]

Using Shoalzie's spreadsheet I've ran a few z-scores (my SPSS has expired on my Laptop) if someone has an active stats program this would be quick.


Anyways... FO and +/- clearly skew scores.. a negative - and no FO brings any players score way down. But,Getzlaf under our scoring system (12 skater categories):

Z-Scores of:
G 1.989329744
A 3.308515936
Pts. 2.986998568
+/- 2.048363015
SOG 1.193428861
GW 1.870641373
Pts. 3.054360312
FOW 2.715177305
BS 0.684123747
Hits 1.336458609
PIM 1.041263226
SH 0.678720534

for an Average Z-score of 1.88491148 putting him in the top 2.9721% of impact.


For comparison, Crosby with under the average BS, PIMS, Hits & Shtoi has an average Z-score of 1.26408298 which actually puts him in the top 10.31%


Suter 25 with an under the average Goals, FOW, Hits & Pims has an average Z-score of 0.667566539 puts him in the top 25.2205%

PK Subban the top 12.9138%
Mark Stuart the lower 48.8665% Now... Removing FOW, +/-: he's actually in the top 36.5791%, Suter into the top 15%, Subban into the top 8%, Above crosby who is in the top 9.0975%, but still below Getzlaf & Giroux.

If there were a DEF points category, where all forwards scored way under the average (0), PK Subban or Shea Weber would be the most impactful asset in the BBKL.


On an impact measure we UNDERvalue finesse, this is not unique to dmen. Defpoints does not change this.

[Nick]

For those that are not famailiar with Z-scores, it is a statistical standardisation to allow for comparisons between different measures. We may want to tell other people about whether or not a score is above or below average. Z-scores tell us how far away a particular score is from it's data-range average. This allows us compare scores from different bunches of data. We will want to know which score is better.

We can then Average this distance from the averages, to see which scores actually mean more.


Note: These numbers are TOO accurate, this is with all 841 players the NHL recorded stats for. Likely should cut down to GP > 20, than begin standardizing and comparing. The average GP for these numbers is 31 (in the 48gp season).

[Robin Hood]

Nick, the argument here isn't for DEF PTS only. It can be TOI - which IMO is the best category as it rewards all players appropriately.

Your Z-Scores do not account for cap which is the biggest consideration here. Suter with no cap is a completely different player than Suter at 7.5M.

Furthermore, when put to a decision with cap involved, it is very difficult to say Suter at 7.5 is much better than Luke Schenn at 3.65, which is not at all true in real life.

[Nick]

The z-scores tell you total impact towards winning in the bbkl. Standardizing cap relative to the other categories would not tell you anything.


the Suter vs Schenn decision is only relevent in context. G/A/Pts cost cap, in every position. 40pt dmen is 6M+ , 60pt forward are 5M +... chosing where you spend it is GMing...

FWIW, Suter is not 1st in toi, he's #28, with 27 goalies having a larger impact, it would be a goalie GP measure first and foremost, 2ndly a GP measure, and 3rdly a big min skater measure. Silly confound but the stat is useless to us.

[Nick]

FWIW Shiv, I just ran Schenn's impact, his Average Z-score is 0.1395476 meaning he is pretty much average impact of ALL 840 players listed. I think it's safe to say Suter is worth the cap difference there. (this is on the total category comparison, which is the only fair way to compare cap impact).


Any under average impact area's are important to weight against the impact a player is having elsewhere. I think Hits and BS impact, as well as G & A, are misunderstood because of the nature of the numbers. Not big total # diff in G/A, and MASSIVE numbers in Hits/BS - but in measuring impact it becomes interesting.

[Robin Hood]

Your argument on TOI is fair in terms of Goalies and GP.

Your argument on Cap is not. Cap changes everything. Just because it is difficult to statistically measure it doesn't mean we do not operate in that environment.

Also allow me to summarize the point about cap vs D vs Forwards:

1. We have finite cap
2. D-men get hits, SHTOI, Blocks better than Forwards
3. Forwards get more points
4. It logically follows that the best BBKL teams should always spend the most on forwards and go with h2h D-men instead of the 6M Lidstrom type.
5. Hence no contending team builds around these players unless they're on amazing ELC/Bridge contracts (e.g. Subban) - furthermore, a 7M Suter impacts a teams ability to get other categories (e.g. Goals) which come from Forwards.

TOI may not be the best measure (is there now way to make it a Skater category only?) But we need to explore options here.

[Nick]

Putting cap hit and average impact on a graph would be easy way of seeing if a players contract is under or above average for his impact.

Anyways, I never said cap should be ignored, just that its not worth doing the math to find out that the greased 3rdline who had a few hit games is great impact/cap. But that's not due to a team of them being the way to win. That's the nature of dividing by a smaller number and cap distribution being non-linear.

We disagree on best way to build a team under our current system, even your own team shows some internal hypocrisy, ; we don't compress all categories into 1 to see who's team is better. In fact the above average in all category team will lose skater categories each week to the 7 stronger category team (regardless of the 7).

The cost from a grinder to well rounded to elite is fairly consistent by category. Cap buys season to season consistency to some extent. By position it just tends to change what you get. A reliable 55 points is expensive at every position.

[Robin Hood]

We disagree on best way to build a team under our current system, even your own team shows some internal hypocrisy.

Please feel free to elaborate once you've taken a shot at me.

Also, this thread has become a place where people are coming to express emotion/not budge from their positions before the argument started. It's a waste of time for me as I cannot keep saying the same things hoping for someone to discuss this topic with an open mind in an open forum.

Neither Shook or I have taken a firm position where it's "take it or leave it", all we want is to have a discussion and to see some sort of change. Instead, all we've had is people come in and try to give reasons why not to do it even though there is a great deal of logic behind our position. Furthermore, SOs have been discussed as a peripheral topic when in fact they are the most useless category in this league. Heck, rolling with 15 categories is better than rolling with 16 where one is SO.

What bugs me is that this is not a solution-based discussion. But if you read through the thread from page 1, I think 10-15 (maybe more) GMs immediately showed support for the change (regardless of what that change will be).

BBKL is very bureaucratic at times, with parties only looking after their own interests when the best of the league in 2 years may run counter to it.

[Robin Hood]

Btw - just making this up but we could potentially do what CORSI does:

Make a new category that adds up SOG + Missed Shots + Shots Blocked (not Blocked shots but how many of a skaters shots are blocked by a player from the opposing team).

Such a category would impact all skaters and in terms of d-men particularly impact the offensive ones.

[shooker]

Btw - just making this up but we could potentially do what CORSI does:

Make a new category that adds up SOG + Missed Shots + Shots Blocked (not Blocked shots but how many of a skaters shots are blocked by a player from the opposing team).

Such a category would impact all skaters and in terms of d-men particularly impact the offensive ones.

I don't know if that stat is one readily available on fantasy sites. It is a neat idea, but I don't see it being an available option. If it were though, great stat.

[Robin Hood]

Btw - just making this up but we could potentially do what CORSI does:

Make a new category that adds up SOG + Missed Shots + Shots Blocked (not Blocked shots but how many of a skaters shots are blocked by a player from the opposing team).

Such a category would impact all skaters and in terms of d-men particularly impact the offensive ones.

I don't know if that stat is one readily available on fantasy sites. It is a neat idea, but I don't see it being an available option. If it were though, great stat.

The stat is readily available if you look up CORSI anywhere. But not sure if CBS can do it. We also wouldn't want the Corsi rating of a player but rather just the total number of shots a player fires regardless of what happens (on net, blocked or missed).

[shooker]

Btw - just making this up but we could potentially do what CORSI does:

Make a new category that adds up SOG + Missed Shots + Shots Blocked (not Blocked shots but how many of a skaters shots are blocked by a player from the opposing team).

Such a category would impact all skaters and in terms of d-men particularly impact the offensive ones.

I don't know if that stat is one readily available on fantasy sites. It is a neat idea, but I don't see it being an available option. If it were though, great stat.

The stat is readily available if you look up CORSI anywhere. But not sure if CBS can do it. We also wouldn't want the Corsi rating of a player but rather just the total number of shots a player fires regardless of what happens (on net, blocked or missed).

I mean I highly doubt it is available on CBS or any Fantasy site. I recently looked at two sites that Mike said were better then CBS stats wise lol. He said he would use them but they allow 20 teams or less. So I doubt that stat is on CBS if it isn't on those sites. Never know though.

[Nick]

Shiv - the very reason I'm talking about the stats and looking them up, and doing the math is because of I am taking part in a discussion.

Saying player X doesn't have enough impact in the league without actual details of how, including why that is wrong, and a solution to fix that without creating a bigger problem is what we're trying to do.


SO doesn't add a ton, that we agree. However it's also not a problem. Good goalies get more shutouts, they are accurately measured, and are a great reflection of the NhL relevance of facing lights out goaltending, you need tp dominate the rest of the game to over-come it. This is coming from the GM who faced more shutouts than any other, last year.

[Shep]

Available Categories

(+/-) Plus Minus
(1PG) 1st Period Goals
(2PG) 2nd Period Goals
(2W) Two Times Wins
(3PG) 3rd Period Goals
(A) Assists
(BS) Blocked Shots
(DA) Defenseman Assists
(DG) Defenseman Goals
(ENG) Empty Net Goals
(FG) First Goals
(FOL) Face-offs lost
(FOW) Face-offs won
(G) Goals
(GA) Goals Against
(GAA) Goals Against Average
(GGP) Goalie Games Played
(GP) Games Played
(GPTS) Goalie Points
(GS) Games Started
(GWG) Game Winning Goals
(HT) Hat Tricks
(Hits) Hits
(L) Losses
(Maj) Majors
(Min) Minutes
(Mis) Misconducts
(Mnr) Minors
(OL) Overtime Losses
(OTG) OT Goals
(OW) Overtime Wins
(PIM) Penalty Minutes
(PPA) Power Play Assists
(PPG) Power Play Goals
(PPGAWOI) Power Play Goals Against While on Ice
(PPGFWOI) Power Play Goals For While on Ice
(PPPTS) Power Play Points
(PPTOI) Power Play Time on Ice
(PSG) Penalty Shot Goals
(PTS) Points
(Pct) Shooting Percentage
(S) Saves
(SHA) Short Handed Assists
(SHG) Short Handed Goals
(SHGAWOI) Short Handed Goals Against While on Ice
(SHGFWOI) Short Handed Goals For While on Ice
(SHOA) Shootout Attempts
(SHOAA) Shootout Attempts Against (all attempts)
(SHOG) Shootout Goals
(SHOGA) Shootout Goals Against
(SHOL) Shootout Losses
(SHOS) Shootout Saves (not including shots that miss the net)
(SHOW) Shootout Wins
(SHPTS) Short Handed Points
(SHTOI) Short Handed Time on Ice
(SO) Shut Outs
(SOG) Shots on Goal
(SOGA) Shots On Goal Against
(SPct) Save Pct
(STA) Special Teams Assists
(STG) Special Teams Goals
(STPTS) Special Teams Points
(Shfts) Shifts
(TOI) Time on Ice
(W) Wins

[Lee]

Dman goals and assists. Boom done.

[Robin Hood]

PPGFWOI - that's the money stat imo.

[kimmer]

I agree. From the initial thought of PPTOI in my mind, it might affect too many players. PPGFWI is a better and specific measurement of those offensive d men with them clappers unless this is a goalie start but doubt it

[KapG]

Both cats you two suggested once again are fixes to increase the value of a small percentage of players. Wanna add a cat add then add one that has a significant affect on all skaters not just the top end offensive dmen.


This is why I get so heated. I'm all for adding another cat. Adding a cat thats going to affect the perceived value of only a few of the offensive dmen is just plain silly. Nicks already mentioned it but the guys like weber and suter and karlsson and subban and doughty already have very fair market value. Their value may hVe taken hit this offseason because of the cap...but thats because we had a huuuuge drop.

[Robin Hood]

Both cats you two suggested once again are fixes to increase the value of a small percentage of players. Wanna add a cat add then add one that has a significant affect on all skaters not just the top end offensive dmen.


This is why I get so heated. I'm all for adding another cat. Adding a cat thats going to affect the perceived value of only a few of the offensive dmen is just plain silly. Nicks already mentioned it but the guys like weber and suter and karlsson and subban and doughty already have very fair market value. Their value may hVe taken hit this offseason because of the cap...but thats because we had a huuuuge drop.

PPGFWOI would impact forwards as well...

[KapG]

Yah I might have looked at the wrong one there. My bad.

With regards to another powerplay stat. Do these forwards need any more value? The top end ones that see all the powerplY time that is?

I'm still of the belief that ES points would be a good one.