The Ryan Suter has no value aka value for puck movers thread

[shooker]

Shiv, now go list all the top end players on the contenders. There are very few owned by the non playoff teams ehen comparing it to playoff teams.

No doubt top teams have more high end players, that is why they are top teams lol. We were talking about top nhlers that are currently very under valued in this league and would gain value with a stat change. That list is dominated by the bottom teams.

[kimmer]

Henrik Sedin
Daniel Sedin
Erik Karlsson
Ryan Suter
Dan Boyle
Brian Campbell
Paul Martin
Thomas Vanek
etc. etc.

All owned by non-playoff teams I believe. This is just off the top of my head.

Don't forget Brent Burns

[KapG]

See as far as im concerned guys like Campbell and yandle and dan boyle and all those guys you and Shiv have previously listed are valued just fine. Guess that's why we are butting heads here.

Gonna take a little time out from this thread for a bit. Done my workouts/cleaning my house now so it's time to relax and perhaps watch a bit of television.

[kimmer]

Man I love kyle's life it always sounds so relaxing and full of activities I fucking hate taking black ppls xrays 50 hrs a week at Jane and finch/Chinese ppl at Richmond hill locations

[Lee]

What the actual fuck Paul.

[Nick]

Guys, there is a fundamental problem with any TOI measure. First and foremost it's a goalie GP stat, secondly it's a skater GP, and finally it's a skater TOI measure. That needs to be remembered and understood.

we understand it, goalies get shtoi already. it is an amount you can overcome when it is say 8 minutes a night rather then 60 per goalie gp. hate to break it to you but G/A/Pts/StPTS/Hits/BS/FOW/Shtoi etc are already biased towards teams with more gp, that is a reality we already live in.

Its a joke that you are 'breaking' anything to me.

Fundamentally you're making a statistical error regarding impact. There is no unique lack of impact from finesse dmen, it's a shared lack of impact with all finesse skater positions. I just showed (if you care to read or understand how stats actually work) that Getzlaf is a better piece in this league (or a net impact measure) than Sidney Crosby (even in a relatively low scoring year by Getz), is that reflective of the NHL? But it is a necessary value-adjustment because we wanted to have a league where building in the 'right' sort of bottom players, matters. We could remove hits/bs/shtoi and have a scoring league like every basis fanasty experience there is out there.

With all non-toi measure there is more variation contributed to the individual player than there is for a GP. For toi measures that is not true, GP at the very low example (shtoi/pptoi) is still so little variation between players that GP is the first control.


Last year the NHL median was 11.27 PIMS/gp/team, compared to even the best shtoi per GP, GP is still the biggest factor.


a few more interesting z-scores (as shiv noted, no measure of cap - I'm sure I could standardize cap and make divisor wherein we can see impact per cap used):

Ovechkin with a MASSIVE impact of 2.273354753 stdDev AVERAGE above the mean - he's the top 1.1502% - also the highest paid player - makes a lot of sense IMO and he's a rather important player in the NHL
.
Oshie, with an approproate 0.685901249 stddev above the mean, meanig he's in the top 25% - good player, but not individual week changing impact.

MSL a nice clear example of how we undervalue finesse players, with an impact score of 1.138834471 std dev above the mean, meaning he's in the top 13%. Not quiet reflective of his actual NHL impact.

Jamie Benn a 0.885989312 putting him in the top 18%. Interestingly, Patty Kane is in the top 7.1472%, despite being UNDER average on 5 categories, he's so far above in the other 7 that his total impact is rather large. This is reflective of the nature of the individual stats, because ther average player doesn't have any FOW, the spread on the category means not contributing to that category isn't a big impact in distance from the mean.

I would note, that MSL's impact is not overly different (especially not year to year) from Shea Webers. and is JUST above Phaneuf (1.12092771).

For net impact, it should be no shock to anyone, that well-rounded players make a bigger impact. Player who do not contribute in various categories, are ultimately below the average in many categories, which minimizes the importance of their dominace in a few categories.


I'm going to be honest here, I did not want to bring it up, but this is actually a tied-in issue with our scoring system issue. Wherein on the season, winning more categories is more important than winning more weeks. IE our first place team is not necessirlary the team that won the most weeks, it is the team that won the most categories. So in the regular season you're better served by trying to win more categories, and not just trying to win the game. Anyways, this is a topic already covered this summer, but adding another category, specifcally onethat is single position relevent, makes this issue bigger.


The deeper I get into the numbers (and likely lose the non-advanced stats inclined) the more evidence I find that we value, as per design, well rounded players more than any specializing players. Adding any value to scoring players, although it would justify their cap more easily, also increases the value of these well rounded players, and hence elimating it's very purpose.

In order to get Ryan Suter worth more than Dion Phaenuf, we'd need to remove PIMS, HITS and add DefPoints. Even in that case they would be practically equal value. Guys that don't show up on the stats sheet, are hard to give value to, adding more catgeories that they do show up on, may increase their value, but it also increases those who are all already appropriatley valued ( a confounding effect).

[shooker]

Its a joke that you are 'breaking' anything to me.

wow dude...

[Sensfanjosh]

Nick your concern about scoring isn't new, just out of curiosity is the CC discussing changing the scoring so a victory results in a win loss or tie rather than a tally of cat wins? Hopefully you know what I mean by that...

[Nick]

Nick your concern about scoring isn't new, just out of curiosity is the CC discussing changing the scoring so a victory results in a win loss or tie rather than a tally of cat wins? Hopefully you know what I mean by that...

It's been discussed, no appitite for a change.

[Sensfanjosh]

Cool beans, thanks

[Bruyns]

Shiv, now go list all the top end players on the contenders. There are very few owned by the non playoff teams ehen comparing it to playoff teams.

No doubt top teams have more high end players, that is why they are top teams lol. We were talking about top nhlers that are currently very under valued in this league and would gain value with a stat change. That list is dominated by the bottom teams.

Isn't that just reflective of why those teams are at the bottom and maybe they just have poor strategy? They are overvaluing guys who put up points and not much else and perhaps that is one of the reason they are more concentrated on the bottom teams since the top ones have adjusted and recognize their value is lower than others might perceive it to be. I found Nick's analysis very intriguing and it's things like that, that can help create a gap in talent if a GM is able to recognize and target players that provide a large impact, but are generally undervalued and avoid players with a lesser impact who might have more perceived value due to name power like a Sedin.

Why help bail out GMs who did a poor job at recognizing BBKL value by inflating the value of players that some GMs purposely avoided since they felt their cap space could be better spent elsewhere rather than tying up 5M+ on a player that doesn't make a contribution to multiple cats. If a team is filled with "finesse" high paid offense types and their team sucks to me that is an indictment of their GMing ability not of the system used. They had the same opportunity as everyone else to value their players and maybe they did a bad job.

That being said I would still prefer defense points over SOs it would just suck to have a large shift in player values when a GM has been constructing a team knowing that high paid offensive D are worth less than a H2H beast making half the salary. Is it just the CC that decides on this stuff? Why not have a league wide vote to see how many perople want change and how many like the way things are currently.

[shooker]

I don't agree with helping them out. It was just in response to those saying this would widen the gap between the top and bottom teams. It would unintentionally help them out, not hurt them, that's all that was meant by that comment.

[Bruyns]

I don't agree with helping them out. It was just in response to those saying this would widen the gap between the top and bottom teams. It would unintentionally help them out, not hurt them, that's all that was meant by that comment.

Thanks for the clarification, I definitely see where you are coming from and why you brought it up in the first place. Lots of good arguments for and against adding in a new cat in this thread.

[Lee]

Many of the bottom teams are not original GMs. You should see the joke of a team I took over.

[Sensfanjosh]

Bruyns, if the CC opted for a vote wouldn't the top teams that were ostensibly smart enough to build teams according to the current rules vote against change, and the teams that would benefit from the change just vote in favor of it?

The idea of the CC is to institute change without bias for the betterment of the league.

[Lee]

It's hard to state that the CC would be completely unbiased considering it consists of ... top teams.

[Lee]

With that said, as a collective, they have the leagues best interests in mind.

[Bruyns]

Hahaha ya I hear you Lee, people usually don't walk away from a contending team. Didn't mean to call out all bottom teams as having shitty GMs if you start with shit it's difficult to turn it into gold without a whole lotta luck

[Nick]

Its a joke that you are 'breaking' anything to me.

wow dude...

read that with a tone different than it was typed with I am thinking.

[Bruyns]

Bruyns, if the CC opted for a vote wouldn't the top teams that were ostensibly smart enough to build teams according to the current rules vote against change, and the teams that would benefit from the change just vote in favor of it?

The idea of the CC is to institute change without bias for the betterment of the league.

Good point