The Ryan Suter has no value aka value for puck movers thread

[Lee]

Hahaha ya I hear you Lee, people usually don't walk away from a contending team. Didn't mean to call out all bottom teams as having shitty GMs if you start with shit it's difficult to turn it into gold without a whole lotta luck

It would be a lot harder for me to build what I have now if I had to start with what I had then, now. We've been slowly weeding out the bad GMs.

[Nick]

Hahaha ya I hear you Lee, people usually don't walk away from a contending team. Didn't mean to call out all bottom teams as having shitty GMs if you start with shit it's difficult to turn it into gold without a whole lotta luck

Several GMs have left contending teams, lots of GMs have quickly rebuilt teams into contenders. It doesn't happen in one move or overnight, but there is enough movement in the league, that if a GM puts in work, their team shows it quickly.


Regarding the CC: many times since I've been there, I have seen GMs put their own interest aside and focus on the league. I think in this thread alone you can see CC and former CC members doing so.

[Robin Hood]

Guys, there is a fundamental problem with any TOI measure. First and foremost it's a goalie GP stat, secondly it's a skater GP, and finally it's a skater TOI measure. That needs to be remembered and understood.

we understand it, goalies get shtoi already. it is an amount you can overcome when it is say 8 minutes a night rather then 60 per goalie gp. hate to break it to you but G/A/Pts/StPTS/Hits/BS/FOW/Shtoi etc are already biased towards teams with more gp, that is a reality we already live in.

Its a joke that you are 'breaking' anything to me.

Fundamentally you're making a statistical error regarding impact. There is no unique lack of impact from finesse dmen, it's a shared lack of impact with all finesse skater positions. I just showed (if you care to read or understand how stats actually work) that Getzlaf is a better piece in this league (or a net impact measure) than Sidney Crosby (even in a relatively low scoring year by Getz), is that reflective of the NHL? But it is a necessary value-adjustment because we wanted to have a league where building in the 'right' sort of bottom players, matters. We could remove hits/bs/shtoi and have a scoring league like every basis fanasty experience there is out there.

With all non-toi measure there is more variation contributed to the individual player than there is for a GP. For toi measures that is not true, GP at the very low example (shtoi/pptoi) is still so little variation between players that GP is the first control.


Last year the NHL median was 11.27 PIMS/gp/team, compared to even the best shtoi per GP, GP is still the biggest factor.


a few more interesting z-scores (as shiv noted, no measure of cap - I'm sure I could standardize cap and make divisor wherein we can see impact per cap used):

Ovechkin with a MASSIVE impact of 2.273354753 stdDev AVERAGE above the mean - he's the top 1.1502% - also the highest paid player - makes a lot of sense IMO and he's a rather important player in the NHL
.
Oshie, with an approproate 0.685901249 stddev above the mean, meanig he's in the top 25% - good player, but not individual week changing impact.

MSL a nice clear example of how we undervalue finesse players, with an impact score of 1.138834471 std dev above the mean, meaning he's in the top 13%. Not quiet reflective of his actual NHL impact.

Jamie Benn a 0.885989312 putting him in the top 18%. Interestingly, Patty Kane is in the top 7.1472%, despite being UNDER average on 5 categories, he's so far above in the other 7 that his total impact is rather large. This is reflective of the nature of the individual stats, because ther average player doesn't have any FOW, the spread on the category means not contributing to that category isn't a big impact in distance from the mean.

I would note, that MSL's impact is not overly different (especially not year to year) from Shea Webers. and is JUST above Phaneuf (1.12092771).

For net impact, it should be no shock to anyone, that well-rounded players make a bigger impact. Player who do not contribute in various categories, are ultimately below the average in many categories, which minimizes the importance of their dominace in a few categories.


I'm going to be honest here, I did not want to bring it up, but this is actually a tied-in issue with our scoring system issue. Wherein on the season, winning more categories is more important than winning more weeks. IE our first place team is not necessirlary the team that won the most weeks, it is the team that won the most categories. So in the regular season you're better served by trying to win more categories, and not just trying to win the game. Anyways, this is a topic already covered this summer, but adding another category, specifcally onethat is single position relevent, makes this issue bigger.


The deeper I get into the numbers (and likely lose the non-advanced stats inclined) the more evidence I find that we value, as per design, well rounded players more than any specializing players. Adding any value to scoring players, although it would justify their cap more easily, also increases the value of these well rounded players, and hence elimating it's very purpose.

In order to get Ryan Suter worth more than Dion Phaenuf, we'd need to remove PIMS, HITS and add DefPoints. Even in that case they would be practically equal value. Guys that don't show up on the stats sheet, are hard to give value to, adding more catgeories that they do show up on, may increase their value, but it also increases those who are all already appropriatley valued ( a confounding effect).

Nick this post is so full of trash - no offence haha.

Btw, I get the stats you are trying to throw out here as I understand stats but not sure all GMs do so you should try to explain it better so that GMs can counter your positions esp when they are flawed like above IMO.

1. Getzlaf is not better than Crosby in our league
2. Being X amount of Standard Deviations above the mean does not imply that said player is actually desirable in our league when cap is factored in. A classic example of this is Eric Staal at 8.250M or Alexander Ovechkin at 9+M. This is a counter I have given you before but you expanded on the same point again in the previous post so I am forced to mention it here.
3. None of your notes address the fact that PPTOI does not have a positive impact.
4. Also, I am short on patience so I won't waste time doing it but having SO is actually a detriment to an H2H league. A team that gets a SO in a given week, likely gets GAA and SV%, likely also W - with SO, that team just needs to go 3-6-3 in the remaining categories to win the week which is RIDICULOUS. One shutout should not determine 4 categories.

Now - we agree the SO are useless. And I am fairly certain we can get SO out of the league with strong support. So that leaves with:

Offence: Goals, Assists, Points, +/-, STPTS, SOG, GWG
Periphs: FOW, Hits, PIMS, SHTOI, Blocks

Adding PPTOI to that mix will not suddenly skew the value of players in a particular direction. But it will introduce a tradeoff which is not currently in place. At the moment, one can go after Hits, PIMS, SHTOI, Blocks without losing elsewhere. PPTOI would remove such a "free lunch".

[Nick]

Instead of thinking about removing SO, which although it has some support, is a sligthly different convo.


If we want to add PPTOI we should specifcally look into what it changes.
The top guys are Markov, Ovy & Subban, Campebell & Suter are on either side of Kunitz. So although it helps the offensive dman, it's adding value & impact to already extremely valued pieces. This list closely resembles the SOG list and STPTS list...

I have no major statistical problem with PPTOI as a measure (aside from the already mentioned goalie GP/ player GP confounds), but am not sure it fixes our 'problems' at all. Although it does add some seperation from the defensive players to the finesse ones, it doesn't really seperate the fineese from the well-rounded. It also doesn't have much spread, from 10th to 97th is a single minute, and I believe this actually adds even more value to dmen like DD, Chara & Phaneuf, no closing of the 'finesse gap' for Suter. At least in my mind. It does increase the gap form Luke Schenn.


Regarding Shutout. Yes they are uncommon, and yes with a SO you likely already won GAA & SV% (although not for sure), however I'll just remind everyone why SO were originally chosen as a category:
-In the NHL if a team has a goalie who is simply on fire, it's extremely difficult to beat them in a game, it requires domination from the opening minute to the end of the third. It's very rare for a team to do so, and similarly as rare as the shutout. All this stats represents is an on fire goalie being worth 1 more win - unless the opposing goalie is also shutting the door. This stat isn't a problem, and IMO we are better off adding another category (which also reduces the impact of goalies, 4/17 instead of 4/16).

[Nick]

Hm.. you understand the stats but don't believe Getzlad is currently having a larger impact than Crosby? That doesn't make sense. Saying I'm 'throwing out' stats is rather poor choice of wording, you are dismissing them on your own subjective opinion, and not intrepreting them.

Getzlaf is having a larger impact on more categories on average than Sidney Crosby. Up until this season he was actually (much) lower cap.


Shiv -> cap is a factor, Never ever-ever said otherwise. I have never said these scores are taking into cap value. But that is a very basic decision to make, and as I understood it the 'issue' was the perceieved impact un-balance some players have (IE finesse dmen are not worth an appropriate amount - they don't score as much as soft scoring forwards, nor do they do the h2h stats like gritty dmen) Yet lots of GMs hugely value Karlsson, DD, Weber, Phaneuf, Kronwall, etc so although we can find a category specifcally tailored to increase the importance of Suter and Campbell, it will also increase the value of that group, who are already valued approproatley (obviously different from GM to GM). It is easy to acquire h2h stats w/o scoring at cheap cap, its possible to acquire scoring w/cap without a ton of value, and it's a ton of value and cap to acquire scoring with h2h. That all makes sense, no?

[Nick]

Z-Scores of:
Cat ---------- Getzlaf ----------------- Crosby
G----------1.989329744----------1.989329744......... explained: same goals, same impact (different from having the average player dress there)
A-----------3.308515936----------4.193388385
Pts.----------2.986998568----------3.557992371 explained: crosby in the top .02 %, Getz the top .15% both far from average player, not huge gap between them
+/-----------2.048363015----------3.780653552
SOG----------1.193428861----------1.802528561
GW----------1.870641373----------0.213336081
stPts.----------3.054360312----------2.847631666
FOW----------2.715177305----------3.590832077
BS----------0.684123747---------- -0.256762515 explained: both are roughly average, Getz just above, Sid just below, neither a large impact
Hits----------1.336458609---------- -0.550718991 explained: getz in the top 9%, crosby in the bottom 30%
PIM----------1.041263226---------- -0.168133538
SH---------- 0.678720534---------- -0.280839966

for an Average Z-score for Getzlaf of 1.88491148 putting him in the top 2.9721% of impact. Whereas Crosby has an average Z-score of 1.26408298 with an impact in the top 10.31%

Salary was 5.325 vs 8.7, so Getz has way more impact, at way less cap.

[kimmer]

Nick, you have so far, written 3 books on this shit - however what is it that you are implying exactly? Leave the scoring system the way it is? Take out SO and add another category other than PPTOI? If so, which fucking category!??!

[Nick]

Nick, you have so far, written 3 books on this shit - however what is it that you are implying exactly? Leave the scoring system the way it is? Take out SO and add another category other than PPTOI? If so, which fucking category!??!

I haven't looked into SO in 5 years. The raitonal behind it wasn't stats based, it was reflection to the NHL in importance of utterly dominant goaltending, and how hard it is to beat without the same.


I was showing that this perceieved lack of impact from scoring dmen, is shared with scoring forwards. But was an attempt in the formation of the league, in adding importance to the grinder portion of the game. As shiv points out, scoring is very expensive cap wise, and in his opinion you're better off spendig cap dollars on well rounded pieces, and saving cap dollars with grinder dmen, because scoring dmen don't score as much per cap as scoring forwards (this is part of league value picture as well). All of this is relative compared to what other GMs do. and IMO is part of GMing.

I have a statistical problem with defpoints and minor concerns of confounds with any toi measure. I believe EVpts is a great measure and would seperate the finesse from the grinders (and add to well rounded) in terms of cap dollars, however it also just adds value to the best teams and futhers the gap in equality in the BBKL.

As others have pointed out in the belief this makes their view more valid, all of these categories would make my team more dominant, and yet I do not believe they are for the best of the bbkl.

If we could remove goalie toi, I don't mind toi as a category- however even without goalies, there is still too big an impact from GP, and we don't want to give points out for GP. So it should be a measured effect in a game. PPGWOI, GFWOI, (WOI - while on ice) - except these help all top line guys, not just the under valued finesse players.

I support improving the categories in our league, I am not oppsing adding a category because I'm hesitant against change, however I think boredom leads to rash decisions, and new shinny things often come with a 'grass is greener' POV, having a look at the downsides to new categories is at least as important as the benefits.

[Robin Hood]

Z-Scores of:
Cat ---------- Getzlaf ----------------- Crosby
G----------1.989329744----------1.989329744......... explained: same goals, same impact (different from having the average player dress there)
A-----------3.308515936----------4.193388385
Pts.----------2.986998568----------3.557992371 explained: crosby in the top .02 %, Getz the top .15% both far from average player, not huge gap between them
+/-----------2.048363015----------3.780653552
SOG----------1.193428861----------1.802528561
GW----------1.870641373----------0.213336081
stPts.----------3.054360312----------2.847631666
FOW----------2.715177305----------3.590832077
BS----------0.684123747---------- -0.256762515 explained: both are roughly average, Getz just above, Sid just below, neither a large impact
Hits----------1.336458609---------- -0.550718991 explained: getz in the top 9%, crosby in the bottom 30%
PIM----------1.041263226---------- -0.168133538
SH---------- 0.678720534---------- -0.280839966

for an Average Z-score for Getzlaf of 1.88491148 putting him in the top 2.9721% of impact. Whereas Crosby has an average Z-score of 1.26408298 with an impact in the top 10.31%

Salary was 5.325 vs 8.7, so Getz has way more impact, at way less cap.

Your argument for Getzlaf at 5.325 obviously holds because of the cap difference but not for Getzlaf at 8.25. Crosby's dominance in the categories he wins are so far above the rest of the population that the losses to Getzlaf in something like BS can be made up by someone on D. Anyways you can continue thinking this way, I think statistically it's not even a question that Crosby is better. Your analysis using Z-Scores is a very basic one and does not model for all variables/circumstances.

If we want to add PPTOI we should specifcally look into what it changes.
The top guys are Markov, Ovy & Subban, Campebell & Suter are on either side of Kunitz. So although it helps the offensive dman, it's adding value & impact to already extremely valued pieces. This list closely resembles the SOG list and STPTS list...

I have no major statistical problem with PPTOI as a measure (aside from the already mentioned goalie GP/ player GP confounds), but am not sure it fixes our 'problems' at all. Although it does add some seperation from the defensive players to the finesse ones, it doesn't really seperate the fineese from the well-rounded. It also doesn't have much spread, from 10th to 97th is a single minute, and I believe this actually adds even more value to dmen like DD, Chara & Phaneuf, no closing of the 'finesse gap' for Suter. At least in my mind. It does increase the gap form Luke Schenn.

Here is the part you are missing in your argument:

Currently with SHTOI, a player like Josh Gorges is very comparable to a player like Andrei Markov. Because when making a decision, Markov may take some offence but there is a "Connection" between our peripheral categories. That is:

A player good in SHTOI, is likely good in Blocks, Hits and perhaps even PIMS. There is no "trade-off".

This situation creates one where a player like Suter - who is elite in Assists, Points (not Goals because these are uncommon on D), STPTS, SOG from D - win about the same amount of categories vs a player like Orpik/Gorges/Beauchemin/Klein as the latter group does vs Suter.

With PPTOI - you create a connection periphery with offence. That is a player like Suter automatically wins a periph vs the H2H d-men who would otherwise tie/come close in most other measures.

Also, it offsets the gap in cap between these two groups. Among the 12 skater categories if a Dan Boyle wins 6 Categories vs a Kevin Klein who wins 4 categories while they come close in 2, the difference of 4M in cap between the two players is IMPOSSIBLE to justify. If you now add PPTOI, this difference becomes more evident.

Furthermore, this also comes in play with skaters where a 4th line role player that hits the same peripheral categories should not have a 4-6-2 split with a 2nd line player. It makes no sense and the gap in cap between the two players makes them two equivalent.

[Nick]

Top players for PP TOI/GP:

Ilya Kovalchuk
Andrei Markov
P.K. Subban
Kris Letang
Alex Ovechkin
Erik Karlsson
Evgeni Malkin
Sidney Crosby
Mike Green
James Neal
Brian Campbell
Chris Kunitz
Henrik Zetterberg
Kimmo Timonen
Ryan Suter
Mark Streit
Steven Stamkos
David Rundblad
Sergei Gonchar
Niklas Kronwall
Ray Whitney
Shea Weber
Claude Giroux
Tobias Enstrom
Daniel Sedin
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Jack Johnson
Marek Zidlicky
Martin St Louis
Jakub Voracek
Dustin Byfuglien
Alexander Edler
Nicklas Backstrom
Alexander Semin
Henrik Sedin
Eric Staal
Pavel Datsyuk
David Clarkson
Jason Pominville
Keith Yandle
Johan Franzen
Patrik Elias
Christian Ehrhoff
Dennis Wideman
Mikko Koivu
Dan Boyle
Zach Parise
John Tavares
Mike Ribeiro
Dion Phaneuf
Jarome Iginla[/u
]Raphael Diaz
Tyler Ennis
Teddy Purcell
Troy Brouwer
Thomas Vanek
Matt Moulson
Jamie Benn
Phil Kessel
Joe Thornton
Ryan Kesler
James Wisniewski
Brad Richards
Radim Vrbata
Loui Eriksson
Taylor Hall
Todd Bertuzzi
Patrick Marleau
Torey Krug
Brad Boyes
Wayne Simmonds
Lubomir Visnovsky
Ryan Callahan
Justin Schultz
Jordan Eberle
Joni Pitkanen
Paul Martin
Mark Arcobello
Rick Nash
Logan Couture
Patrick Sharp
Jaromir Jagr
Jared Spurgeon
Max Pacioretty
Travis Zajac
Vincent Lecavalier
Drew Doughty
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Dany Heatley
Alex Tanguay

33 Dmen in the top 90 (so the stat does favour them, given it should be a 2:3 ratio normally) But once again... Although BS might be more common with SHTOI, we already have PPTOI being at least as related with SOG, STPTS, G/A/Pts...

Anyways, it's interesting, not sure if it's an improvement, but it is different.

Sure seems to add more value to some already extremely dominant pieces...I underlined some of the already super valued pieces, and bolded the ones some people expressed were under-valued...

[Robin Hood]

Top players for PP TOI/GP:

Ilya Kovalchuk
Andrei Markov
P.K. Subban
Kris Letang
Alex Ovechkin
Erik Karlsson
Evgeni Malkin
Sidney Crosby
Mike Green
James Neal
Brian Campbell
Chris Kunitz
Henrik Zetterberg
Kimmo Timonen
Ryan Suter
Mark Streit
Steven Stamkos
David Rundblad
Sergei Gonchar
Niklas Kronwall
Ray Whitney
Shea Weber
Claude Giroux
Tobias Enstrom
Daniel Sedin
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Jack Johnson
Marek Zidlicky
Martin St Louis
Jakub Voracek
Dustin Byfuglien
Alexander Edler
Nicklas Backstrom
Alexander Semin
Henrik Sedin
Eric Staal
Pavel Datsyuk
David Clarkson
Jason Pominville
Keith Yandle
Johan Franzen
Patrik Elias
Christian Ehrhoff
Dennis Wideman
Mikko Koivu
Dan Boyle
Zach Parise
John Tavares
Mike Ribeiro
Dion Phaneuf
Jarome Iginla
Raphael Diaz
Tyler Ennis
Teddy Purcell
Troy Brouwer
Thomas Vanek
Matt Moulson
Jamie Benn
Phil Kessel
Joe Thornton
Ryan Kesler
James Wisniewski
Brad Richards
Radim Vrbata
Loui Eriksson
Taylor Hall
Todd Bertuzzi
Patrick Marleau
Torey Krug
Brad Boyes
Wayne Simmonds
Lubomir Visnovsky
Ryan Callahan
Justin Schultz
Jordan Eberle
Joni Pitkanen
Paul Martin
Mark Arcobello
Rick Nash
Logan Couture
Patrick Sharp
Jaromir Jagr
Jared Spurgeon
Max Pacioretty
Travis Zajac
Vincent Lecavalier
Drew Doughty
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Dany Heatley
Alex Tanguay

Fixed the list - bolded all D-men + other players who will see a value bump to a team looking to win as it does in real life.

[Nick]

You think Subban & Letang weren't valued properly? man they're having massive impact in the weekly scores, have huge trade value. I'm in complete disagreement that they weren't well represented.

And any bump in value is only compared to those not on this list (obviously). But this isn't closing the gap fro Suter to Phaneuf or Giroux.

[Robin Hood]

You think Subban & Letang weren't valued properly? man they're having massive impact in the weekly scores, have huge trade value. I'm in complete disagreement that they weren't well represented.

And any bump in value is only compared to those not on this list (obviously). But this isn't closing the gap fro Suter to Phaneuf or Giroux.

No no - Subban and Letang are highlighted as d-men. Not for being undervalued.

Btw - a LOT of the remaining d-men are undervalued. It's actually unreal when you look at the list.

Edit - Letang will be undervalued at 7+M btw as will Subban once his bridge contract ends.

[shooker]

You think Subban & Letang weren't valued properly? man they're having massive impact in the weekly scores, have huge trade value. I'm in complete disagreement that they weren't well represented.

And any bump in value is only compared to those not on this list (obviously). But this isn't closing the gap fro Suter to Phaneuf or Giroux.

No no - Subban and Letang are highlighted as d-men. Not for being undervalued.

Btw - a LOT of the remaining d-men are undervalued. It's actually unreal when you look at the list.

Edit - Letang will be undervalued at 7+M btw as will Subban once his bridge contract ends.

I'd take both at 7M but those are two exceptions. The point of this thread was originally to make it so 7M Dmen = to 7M forwards lol.

That is an unreal list, it's actually a way better stat then I originally though. Paul with a great idea.

[Robin Hood]

11 pages into a thread I think we may have something we can begin exploring in greater detail.

[Nick]

This is increasing the value of all players in a heavy offensive role. If you currently believe the scoring forward is worth more than the scoring Dman this changes nothing.

It does make scoring players of all genre worth more than their non- scoring counterparts.

[The BBKL Insider]

I would be pro-change

Either SO to total ice time

If

Shtoi to total ice time

[Nick]

Toi isn't a functional stat. 60toi per goalie GP is extreme.

[shooker]

This is increasing the value of all players in a heavy offensive role. If you currently believe the scoring forward is worth more than the scoring Dman this changes nothing.

It does make scoring players of all genre worth more than their non- scoring counterparts.

I know that lol. My goals (even value of forwards and D) wont be met, that is clear now but this at least adds value to the finesse player. Any improvement is worth discussion imo.

[kimmer]

pretty sure PPTOI is the one. post it.