The Ryan Suter has no value aka value for puck movers thread

[Nick]

hang on. will have to re-vist another day. slide didn't work somewhere there... had OVY with above mean for FOW, spreadsheet error and i don't want to do it anymore. Will revist tomorrow after work I guess.

[shooker]

lol could you delete what messed up? so people don't get their minds made up after reviewing improper data lol.

[Nick]

re-done:

pptoi as 13th category:

Ovechkin
Datsyuk
Toews
Stepan
Staal
Kunitz
Getzlaf
Stamkos
Giroux
Zetterberg
Crosby
Tavares
Callahan
Subban
Backstrom
Kopitar
Koivu
Couture
Phaneuf
Duchene
St. Louis

[Nick]

top 50 w/dman pts added:
Ovechkin
Datsyuk
Toews
Stepan
Staal
Getzlaf
Kunitz
Subban
Stamkos
Giroux
Phaneuf
Zetterberg
Crosby
Tavares
Callahan
Weber
Letang
Kopitar
Chara
Kane
Dupuis
Backstrom
Duchene
Couture
Ott
Backes
Ladd
Bergeron
Koivu
Beauchemin
St. Louis
Timonen
Perry
Markov
Kronwall
Kessel
Parise
Ribeiro
Carter
Hall
Pavelski
Brouwer
Nash
Suter
Plekanec
Kane
Neal
Seidenberg
Yandle
Gonchar
Sedin
Byfuglien
Carlson

[Nick]

I like the change more than I thought i did. Still not sure it's a good change, but it's not as bad as I thought.

[Robin Hood]

I like the change more than I thought i did. Still not sure it's a good change, but it's not as bad as I thought.

I knew Shook and I could convince you with reason. Good on you Nick for keeping an open mind (I realize you may not be fully convinced yet but it's a start).

I hope other detractors have been reading the last couple of pages of this thread.

[Nick]

Seperated out the special team points (PPpts & SHpts) and added dman points:

top 100:

Stepan
Datsyuk
Toews
Getzlaf
Ovechkin
Staal
Zetterberg
Callahan
Giroux
Kunitz
Subban
Stamkos
Phaneuf
Crosby
Tavares
Ott
Chara
Dupuis
Couture
Duchene
Backes
Weber
Bergeron
Letang
Perry
Kopitar
Brouwer
Pavelski
Nash
Kane
Backstrom
Marchand
Ladd
Koivu
Beauchemin
Kovalchuk
St. Louis
Markov
Timonen
Kronwall
Kessel
Ribeiro
Parise
Hall
Carter
Gagner
Sedin
Suter
Hossa
Plekanec
Kane
Keith
Stoll
Neal
Stempniak
Semin
Seidenberg
Yandle
Gonchar
Byfuglien
Carlson
Kadri
Tlusty
Thornton
Seabrook
Doughty
Staal
Bozak
Marleau
Ehrhoff
Goligoski
Simmonds
Hodgson
Ekman-Larsson
Franson
Souray
Brown
Pietrangelo
McDonagh
Wideman
Turris
Voracek
Tyutin
Hamhuis
Clarkson
Letestu
Bouwmeester
Krejci
Voynov
Edler
Wheeler
Benn
Little
Green
Richards
Eller
Berglund
Elias
Neil
Boyle
Giordano


Rather interesting list IMO, no crazy changes in value, although dmen who score, score on PP, and score some shorthanded get a nice pump up.
That's one dman in top 10, a nice mix in top 50, and it continues into top 100 (34).

[Nick]

well... i shouldn't say no crazy changes, those really high scoring dmen get quiet a jump from dman pts...

[Nick]

I removed the inconsistent categories (GWG, +/-) and add dman pts:

Ovechkin
Subban
Giroux
Phaneuf
Stamkos
Staal
Getzlaf
Weber
Datsyuk
Toews
Zetterberg
Duchene
Crosby
Tavares
Ribeiro
Stepan
Backes
Kronwall
Backstrom
Timonen
Letang
Kopitar
St. Louis
Suter
Kunitz
Kane
Callahan
Markov
Ott
Koivu
Beauchemin
Chara
Staal
Plekanec
Kessel
Doughty
Gagner
Edler
Byfuglien
Parise
Brouwer
Carlson
Franson
Ladd
Hall
Thornton
Couture
Pavelski
Keith
Yandle
Wideman


I think that shows the skewing effect GWG & +/- have... I wonder what it looks like w/o dman pts

[Nick]

Just the 10 'predictable' categories (G/A/Pts/Stpts/FOW/Hits/BS/Pims/Shtoi/SOG):
Ovechkin
Giroux
Stamkos
Staal
Getzlaf
Datsyuk
Phaneuf
Toews
Zetterberg
Duchene
Crosby
Tavares
Ribeiro
Stepan
Backes
Backstrom
Subban
Kopitar
St. Louis
Kunitz
Kane
Callahan
Ott
Koivu
Weber
Staal
Plekanec
Kessel
Gagner
Parise
Brouwer
Ladd
Hall
Thornton
Couture
Pavelski
Dupuis
Kane
Nash
Bergeron
Chara
Brown
Benn
Kronwall
Kadri
Perry
Sedin
Voracek
Timonen
Wheeler
Semin


Which is actually probably more similar a list to how we value players in the bbkl, because gwg & +/- aren't consistently earned it's hard to value them - I think we're allowing for a good amount of unpredicatablitily in the bbkl, especially when SO are considered Makes me have even more faith in how we've currently setup the league.

[shooker]

6 dmen in the top 50 makes you confident things are set up properly? I think we should strive for at least a 70-30 mix.

[shooker]

have you made a list facey with just pptoi added?

doesn't taking out +/- and gwg skew the numbers? +/- for one is something I take into consideration in depth. It is more a team stat then random. I think it needs to be in any list we make. It may be unpredictable week to week, but it is fairly predictable over an 82 game regular season, which is how we are measuring this. GWG I can see the argument but it is more random.

[Nick]

Taking out GWG & +/- is valueable imo because they are not consistent year to year. And does/*should* remove single year impact fluxuations. I am in no way saying we should remove these stats, just that it is a cleaner picture to look at the list w/o them.

[Nick]

have you made a list facey with just pptoi added?

Yep:

Ovechkin
Datsyuk
Toews
Stepan
Staal
Kunitz
Getzlaf
Stamkos
Giroux
Zetterberg
Crosby
Tavares
Callahan
Subban
Backstrom
Kopitar
Koivu
Couture
Phaneuf
Duchene
St. Louis
Kane
Ott
Ladd
Parise
Ribeiro
Kessel
Backes
Brouwer
Hall
Pavelski
Perry
Bergeron
Carter
Nash
Plekanec
Dupuis
Kane
Neal
Weber
Sedin
Chara
Thornton
Semin
Tlusty
Markov
Kadri
Simmonds
Voracek
Gagner
Marchand


It does not change very much, and upon further consideration actually really begins to compound the goalie gpeffect. because we already have 2 confounded stats with goalie gp, each additonal makes it worse (W, shtoi) making it 3 isn't making goalies matter more, it's making goalie gp matter more.

[shooker]

K I am actually ok without that one. not because of compounding stats, strictly because I don't see enough change in the list. also only 5 dmen on that list. I thought this would convince you that pptoi was a good idea, but all it has done was brought me back to believe even stronger that my original stance on dmen lacking value was the true issue at hand. it really is the only major flaw currently in our system.

[Nick]

I wouldn't downplay the compounding effect of too many stats with goalie GP being a factor.


If two very similar SHTOI, W and PPTOI teams were to play each other, goalie GP is a big factor in 6 points in addition to the SV%, GAA & SO. But we agree that it's not making a difference worth pursuing, nor is it without flaws.


I'll say it again, the predictably/valued category top 50 (that's the list with +/- and GWG removed) looks rather good to me, and IMO support standing pat. There is a dman in the top 10, once i have the 2011-2012 Numbers i can confirm that it works year to year as well.

Not that adding Dman points ruins anything, it's just a rather notable value shift to the offensive back end, doesn't value the under-valued guys (Suter) any differently than the already desirable (beau, subban, JJ, etc). Additionally there is a damage loss to goalie by adding a new category, and replacing one of the 3 less reliable categories we have (GWG/+/SO)is not something that I believe is good for the league, as they have a role in our league outside of player value.

Still going back and forth on dmanPts. Changing categories in a keeper league, when there's nothing broken (different form not being perfect), could be a mistake. Doesn't seem to be league demand for the change.

[Robin Hood]

Lol I'm so exhausted from this persistent argument.

CC members have seen this thread and all the arguments and stats presented here. I would hope that it is enough to get a discussion going in the CC.

If not, then so be it. My team is better under our current system than after any such change would be made anyways.

No more posts from me in this thread.

[shooker]

Lol I'm so exhausted from this persistent argument.

CC members have seen this thread and all the arguments and stats presented here. I would hope that it is enough to get a discussion going in the CC.

If not, then so be it. My team is better under our current system than after any such change would be made anyways.

No more posts from me in this thread.

I actually feel the same way. We are the point where we are just going in circles. I see it as an issue that there is only 5 or 6 dmen in the top 50, a big issue. If others don't agree, well I don't think there is any more factual evidence (although, I'll say it again, +/- should not have be excluded from that list) to change their minds, it has all been listed. If having Keith, Doughty, Suter, Karlsson!...Karlsson, Pie T, Letang and OEL outside of the to 50 isn't enough to provoke a cat change.... I'll just end it at that lol.

no more posts from me either. its draining.

[Nick]

embarrassing.

[shooker]

embarrassing.

how lol? This has turned into a three person conversation, every point has been made imo and we keep going in circles. We have established dmen are undervalued, we found the best stat out there to fix it, so now it is just a matter of does the CC think we need to. I personally think its obvious but others disagree. What I set out to do, happened. I am content knowing the conversation has been started, now it is time to go to the CC. I don't know how many times today I have said," but there are only 6 defensemen in the top 50, that is wrong". This isn't us giving up, this is us saying, we have said all there is to say, if people haven't changed their minds they never will. I don't think it is a negative thing at all that we don't want to drag this out, but rather a good thing. Far from embarrassing imo.