Block for Washington

[Robin Hood]

Tyler Bozak for Keith.

IMO easier to get a bozak than a perennial allstar D man. Solid offer if going by FT though

I think it is incredibly expensive to find a 700+ FOW C. Your analysis touts the upside of Keith but the downside of Bozak.

Keith lacks in Hits, PIMS, Blocks (average stats replaceable by most dmen). He's great in Points and SHTOI.

Bozak is a 900+ FOW C with 40-50 points.

Now let's break down what kind of Cs you can actually get for Keith straight up:

Top Tier? E.g. Crosby, Giroux, Benn, Backes etc.
No chance unless you have a huge add which would also have to be a C, likely even a prospect/1st

Second Tier? E.g. Pavelski, Tyler Seguin, Logan Couture
In a 1-for -1 no chance. Again need to add

Third Tier? E.g. Plekanec, Kyle Turris, Mikko Koivu
The teams/GMs that own those players will simply decline because it's better to own Plekanec + Periph Dman than Keith + 3rd/4th line C. So when you approach them, they will ask you to add but YOU will say no because adding to Keith to get a C seems like an improper use of your resources

Young/upcoming star Cs? E.g. MacKinnon, Reinhart, Bjugstad etc.
No chance.

So what are you left with?
Going after the solid C that isn't a star but incredibly valuable in BBKL. E.g. Tyler Bozak


It's funny, people sit around making blocks waiting for offers for years but the heart of the matter as to why deals don't get done is people don't get what everyone else is facing/looking for. When you start to look at it from that lens, you realize what actually will get done and end up making more deals that actually help both teams.

[Fraser]

IMO I made a superior offer on Keith than Bozak. Which was also turned down.

[Bruyns]

That's if you're under the assumption that Bozak will consistently put up 40-50pts and 900FOW. It's reasonable based on his track record, but I'm sure you will have GMs that disagree which is why his value is lower than a C with the same stats and a different name.

[Robin Hood]

That's if you're under the assumption that Bozak will consistently put up 40-50pts and 900FOW. It's reasonable based on his track record, but I'm sure you will have GMs that disagree which is why his value is lower than a C with the same stats and a different name.

See I'm fine with Thom rejecting the Bozak offer. But it's when the statement that "Keith is a perennial all-star dman deserving of more" is made that I pulled out the logical fallacy in the statement.

Thom also has the following options:

-Keep keith (which also risks his value going down as he is over 30)
-Package Keith down for 2 pieces which he seems against doing

Keith for a C straight, I would be shocked if the C Thom gets is a significantly better BBKLer than Bozak.

[kimmer]

Tyler Bozak for Keith.

IMO easier to get a bozak than a perennial allstar D man. Solid offer if going by FT though

I think it is incredibly expensive to find a 700+ FOW C. Your analysis touts the upside of Keith but the downside of Bozak.

Keith lacks in Hits, PIMS, Blocks (average stats replaceable by most dmen). He's great in Points and SHTOI.

Bozak is a 900+ FOW C with 40-50 points.

Now let's break down what kind of Cs you can actually get for Keith straight up:

Top Tier? E.g. Crosby, Giroux, Benn, Backes etc.
No chance unless you have a huge add which would also have to be a C, likely even a prospect/1st

Second Tier? E.g. Pavelski, Tyler Seguin, Logan Couture
In a 1-for -1 no chance. Again need to add

Third Tier? E.g. Plekanec, Kyle Turris, Mikko Koivu
The teams/GMs that own those players will simply decline because it's better to own Plekanec + Periph Dman than Keith + 3rd/4th line C. So when you approach them, they will ask you to add but YOU will say no because adding to Keith to get a C seems like an improper use of your resources

Young/upcoming star Cs? E.g. MacKinnon, Reinhart, Bjugstad etc.
No chance.

So what are you left with?
Going after the solid C that isn't a star but incredibly valuable in BBKL. E.g. Tyler Bozak


It's funny, people sit around making blocks waiting for offers for years but the heart of the matter as to why deals don't get done is people don't get what everyone else is facing/looking for. When you start to look at it from that lens, you realize what actually will get done and end up making more deals that actually help both teams.

This is an excellent educative/wakeup post for those who just don't get player value.

[kimmer]

And bryuns. Lets say bozak moves on to another team. Even if he digressed to 30 pts/500 fow and maybe increased shtoi, it really doesn't take much away because he has that periph value. Hes not gonna just drop to 15 pts/200 fow or anything...

In conjunction with shivs post if bozak still does digress, with a proper add on top itd still be a good deal for keith but meh thats just me. Filppula posts 50 pts 600 fow with 100 shtoi but I bet hes worth a bag of dicks. Id much rather him than bozak since filp is a perennial top 6 centre/forward

[Robin Hood]

And bryuns. Lets say bozak moves on to another team. Even if he digressed to 30 pts/500 fow and maybe increased shtoi, it really doesn't take much away because he has that periph value. Hes not gonna just drop to 15 pts/200 fow or anything...

In conjunction with shivs post if bozak still does digress, with a proper add on top itd still be a good deal for keith but meh thats just me. Filppula posts 50 pts 600 fow with 100 shtoi but I bet hes worth a bag of dicks. Id much rather him than bozak since filp is a perennial top 6 centre/forward

Would you trade Filp for Keith straight ever?

[kimmer]

Based on my needs, nope. I couldn't.

[Robin Hood]

Based on my needs, nope. I couldn't.

That's what I thought .

[thom54]

Firstly, great discussion.

Keith is what he is, and it's a great asset to own going forward. His age shouldn't really be a factor ... this league is a BIT tied up with kids. It's not like he plays a physical brand of hockey that leads to deterioration. He does it with amazing skating and hockey IQ. Sure his weaker stats are those that more stereotypical BBKL D men bring. However, what he does bring is a harder find on the backend that those. If I deal him, it's for a deal that makes sense for what my vision of WSH for 2015-16.

Periph D men come and go more frequently I believe, that higher octane offensive D-men.

I have my reasons for not wanting to invest in Bozak at that cost.

Fraser did toss a very nice stats offer at me too.

[kimmer]

Based on my needs, nope. I couldn't.

That's what I thought .

Yea

what we're talking about here btw as well is not to harp or criticize on how thom wants to sell/manage his assets either. This same conceptual discussion implies to every one of us as GMs who try to maximize profit on our products and never letting them fly below value expected of them to go for.

but it is important once in a while to organize our thoughts and needs and worth/value on actual paper (which is what shiv did masterfully on his last long post) to truly look at guys like Keith, who is a perrennial all-star and a true real life elite scoring d-man and a leader, how much of that really contributes to fantasy value? we all know logically speaking, that it's not worth "anything"... we compete for stats, and longevity/age/cap hit takes way more precedent over those qualitative attributes in a player 10 days out of the week. Keith to me, will always be scoring decent amount, but considering the continued aging like all players, i know his scoring will slowly digress and those type of low periph, scoring dmen assets are dangerous to own, as to say, that they would start to decrease in market value hence not going to be able to flip them for super young studs or studs to be even (agreed with kids being way too valued in our league) but they certainly would be if great use for good lateral swap of similar calibre players or guys in their prime who might be slightly a tier below Keith's. But definitely not 'valueless'

Again none of this is to bash and devalue thom's players but sometimes the way a lot of us act and talk about a certain guy we own, we magically "forget" or dismiss what's actually really important even though we know it in the back of our minds "yea... i kno none of that shit matters but I'm gonna market it as being the top preferred attribute" For me for the most part, as long as the role*(ice time) in conjunction with production is there, I consider them valuable. So I suppose technically Keith will still be quite valuable in this league as long as he's their preferred top 2 pairing with good amount of ice time. STPTS is the category that should be measured when it comes to valuing Keith IMO.

not something we always talk about but yea... i really wonder what keith is worth without lowball, but true value comparing fair stat swap and ice time priorty/value

[KapG]

*yawn*

[kimmer]

LOLLLL

[bills09]

Defencemen only hold value in season when everyone's begging for one

[thom54]

Defencemen only hold value in season when everyone's begging for one

shush Billy

[bills09]

Keith has lots of value but right now people want kids

[Lee]

Yeah Thom made a pretty good offer but I don't want to trade Granlund

[Tony]

Looks like Gordon is the top offer. You'd still have to add though.

[Florida Chris]

Whats the price on that No one fellow

[The BBKL Insider]

Granlund for keith.

Wtf lee. Take that.