CHI - EDM

[CasperX22]

Really not a fan of this move for CHI. Nice sell high on Leipsic for Arian; don't think he's much going forward. Arian wins big, Muzzin is a stud

I've always like Leipsic and think he'll do really well when surrounded by talent.

Muzzin is a great player indeed, but I needed GP protection and this helps me out for the next several years. The value between 10 and 17 isn't that far off in this draft, and the drop is worth being able to protect my 1st overall pick next year which will really be the first cornerstone of my rebuild.

You are out of your fucking mind or haven't done your research if you think the gap between the 10th best player in this draft and 17th best player is minimal.

[Jordan (VGK)]

Really not a fan of this move for CHI. Nice sell high on Leipsic for Arian; don't think he's much going forward. Arian wins big, Muzzin is a stud

I've always like Leipsic and think he'll do really well when surrounded by talent.

Muzzin is a great player indeed, but I needed GP protection and this helps me out for the next several years. The value between 10 and 17 isn't that far off in this draft, and the drop is worth being able to protect my 1st overall pick next year which will really be the first cornerstone of my rebuild.

You are out of your fucking mind or haven't done your research if you think the gap between the 10th best player in this draft and 17th best player is minimal.

Just on average 17 is closer to like 35ish than it is to 10. Not to mention this year where 4-10 is all a bit up in the air.

[Bruyns]

Really not a fan of this move for CHI. Nice sell high on Leipsic for Arian; don't think he's much going forward. Arian wins big, Muzzin is a stud

I've always like Leipsic and think he'll do really well when surrounded by talent.

Muzzin is a great player indeed, but I needed GP protection and this helps me out for the next several years. The value between 10 and 17 isn't that far off in this draft, and the drop is worth being able to protect my 1st overall pick next year which will really be the first cornerstone of my rebuild.

You are out of your fucking mind or haven't done your research if you think the gap between the 10th best player in this draft and 17th best player is minimal.

You never know, you could end up with someone who drops like Pastrnak and plenty of examples of underwhelming top 10 picks. In theory there is a gap, but way too much randomness to talk in certainties.

[bills09]

IMO
1
2-3
4-11
12-16
16-40

Are the tiers for this draft
Interchangeable inbetween.

[Matthew]

I think the late 1st and 2nd round seem pretty week this year in comparison to past years.

[Da_Hawks]

Really not a fan of this move for CHI. Nice sell high on Leipsic for Arian; don't think he's much going forward. Arian wins big, Muzzin is a stud

I've always like Leipsic and think he'll do really well when surrounded by talent.

Muzzin is a great player indeed, but I needed GP protection and this helps me out for the next several years. The value between 10 and 17 isn't that far off in this draft, and the drop is worth being able to protect my 1st overall pick next year which will really be the first cornerstone of my rebuild.

You are out of your fucking mind or haven't done your research if you think the gap between the 10th best player in this draft and 17th best player is minimal.

https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaki ... e-1.786131

10% difference between 10 and 17 to play 100 games. I call that minimal. It's precisely because I do my homework that I can pick up two younger players and a later pick instead of over-the-hills and a better pick and still come out ahead. Maybe I both my pick - maybe 8-12 bust. Let's talk again in 5 years if we are both still around.

[Jordan (VGK)]

Really not a fan of this move for CHI. Nice sell high on Leipsic for Arian; don't think he's much going forward. Arian wins big, Muzzin is a stud

I've always like Leipsic and think he'll do really well when surrounded by talent.

Muzzin is a great player indeed, but I needed GP protection and this helps me out for the next several years. The value between 10 and 17 isn't that far off in this draft, and the drop is worth being able to protect my 1st overall pick next year which will really be the first cornerstone of my rebuild.

You are out of your fucking mind or haven't done your research if you think the gap between the 10th best player in this draft and 17th best player is minimal.

https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaki ... e-1.786131

10% difference between 10 and 17 to play 100 games. I call that minimal. It's precisely because I do my homework that I can pick up two younger players and a later pick instead of over-the-hills and a better pick and still come out ahead. Maybe I both my pick - maybe 8-12 bust. Let's talk again in 5 years if we are both still around.

GP is a poor indication for value of a draft pick. Any 1st rounder is a near guaranteed to get GP as a team invested a 1st into them. 17 is for sure still a decent chance to get a star, but GP is just a bad baseline for value.

[lightupdadarkness]

Really not a fan of this move for CHI. Nice sell high on Leipsic for Arian; don't think he's much going forward. Arian wins big, Muzzin is a stud

I've always like Leipsic and think he'll do really well when surrounded by talent.

Muzzin is a great player indeed, but I needed GP protection and this helps me out for the next several years. The value between 10 and 17 isn't that far off in this draft, and the drop is worth being able to protect my 1st overall pick next year which will really be the first cornerstone of my rebuild.

You are out of your fucking mind or haven't done your research if you think the gap between the 10th best player in this draft and 17th best player is minimal.

https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaki ... e-1.786131

10% difference between 10 and 17 to play 100 games. I call that minimal. It's precisely because I do my homework that I can pick up two younger players and a later pick instead of over-the-hills and a better pick and still come out ahead. Maybe I both my pick - maybe 8-12 bust. Let's talk again in 5 years if we are both still around.

GP is a poor indication for value of a draft pick. Any 1st rounder is a near guaranteed to get GP as a team invested a 1st into them. 17 is for sure still a decent chance to get a star, but GP is just a bad baseline for value.

Star depends if you know how to draft but the tiers actually are indicators of the quality of player which I think is what some people are saying not the GP

[CasperX22]

Really not a fan of this move for CHI. Nice sell high on Leipsic for Arian; don't think he's much going forward. Arian wins big, Muzzin is a stud

I've always like Leipsic and think he'll do really well when surrounded by talent.

Muzzin is a great player indeed, but I needed GP protection and this helps me out for the next several years. The value between 10 and 17 isn't that far off in this draft, and the drop is worth being able to protect my 1st overall pick next year which will really be the first cornerstone of my rebuild.

You are out of your fucking mind or haven't done your research if you think the gap between the 10th best player in this draft and 17th best player is minimal.

https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaki ... e-1.786131

10% difference between 10 and 17 to play 100 games. I call that minimal. It's precisely because I do my homework that I can pick up two younger players and a later pick instead of over-the-hills and a better pick and still come out ahead. Maybe I both my pick - maybe 8-12 bust. Let's talk again in 5 years if we are both still around.

You've completely missed the point. GP is not an indication of the QUALITY of the player that you are receiving. An argument like that is better served when you are comparing say a late 2nd and a mid 3rd because guys picked in those ranges aren't expected to be stars. Pretty much at that point in the draft if you hit on an NHL player you are ahead of the game. With few exceptions the stars of the league are taken in the top 10.

[Jordan (VGK)]

Star depends if you know how to draft but the tiers actually are indicators of the quality of player which I think is what some people are saying not the GP

Yea I was just speaking to the 10% chance at 100 GP thing. How many GP the 17th player on average plays is very primitive in determining how much that pick is worth.

[Da_Hawks]

Ugh... then read the rest of the article.

17th overall = 22% chance of getting a top 6 forward or top 4 d-man.
10th overall = 13% chance of obtaining the same (bad draft slot apparently).

17th overall = 56.6% chance of 4th liner or busting
10th overall = 65.3% chance of 4th liner or busting.

Once you get into the teens, the chance of getting a 4th liner or bust is about the same for the 1st round.

[Matthew]

Id say that it is important to look at drafting statisics only after the cap was implemented. Investment in scouting has increased considerably.

[thom54]

This is the reason i like the lottery. No matter how bad someone makes their team, they arent guaranteed 1st overall a year in advance and are even unlikely to win it. I will really enjoy MY 1st overall pick next year.

nah, it's going to be CAR's 2019 1st. It is destiny.

[Jordan (VGK)]

Ugh... then read the rest of the article.

17th overall = 22% chance of getting a top 6 forward or top 4 d-man.
10th overall = 13% chance of obtaining the same (bad draft slot apparently).

17th overall = 56.6% chance of 4th liner or busting
10th overall = 65.3% chance of 4th liner or busting.

Once you get into the teens, the chance of getting a 4th liner or bust is about the same for the 1st round.

More so speaks to how NHL teams draft more than anything. Teams pick rather conservatively which hurts their chance of finding a high end guy in the teens. If you take risks and draft the small skilled guy (see Yammamoto/Debrinkat) that's when you come out ahead. While those numbers are telling of how we may overrate 1st rounders, I do believe those figures are inflated due to draft tendencies by many teams.

[Da_Hawks]

Ugh... then read the rest of the article.

17th overall = 22% chance of getting a top 6 forward or top 4 d-man.
10th overall = 13% chance of obtaining the same (bad draft slot apparently).

17th overall = 56.6% chance of 4th liner or busting
10th overall = 65.3% chance of 4th liner or busting.

Once you get into the teens, the chance of getting a 4th liner or bust is about the same for the 1st round.

More so speaks to how NHL teams draft more than anything. Teams pick rather conservatively which hurts their chance of finding a high end guy in the teens. If you take risks and draft the small skilled guy (see Yammamoto/Debrinkat) that's when you come out ahead. While those numbers are telling of how we may overrate 1st rounders, I do believe those figures are inflated due to draft tendencies by many teams.

And while that may be true, most draft rankings still reflect more or less the same players as the NHL teams choose, which is then reflected back into these statistics, which makes them fairly relevant.

[Jordan (VGK)]

Ugh... then read the rest of the article.

17th overall = 22% chance of getting a top 6 forward or top 4 d-man.
10th overall = 13% chance of obtaining the same (bad draft slot apparently).

17th overall = 56.6% chance of 4th liner or busting
10th overall = 65.3% chance of 4th liner or busting.

Once you get into the teens, the chance of getting a 4th liner or bust is about the same for the 1st round.

More so speaks to how NHL teams draft more than anything. Teams pick rather conservatively which hurts their chance of finding a high end guy in the teens. If you take risks and draft the small skilled guy (see Yammamoto/Debrinkat) that's when you come out ahead. While those numbers are telling of how we may overrate 1st rounders, I do believe those figures are inflated due to draft tendencies by many teams.

And while that may be true, most draft rankings still reflect more or less the same players as the NHL teams choose, which is then reflected back into these statistics, which makes them fairly relevant.

Yea I get your point., I'm not saying you're wrong, per se. As we are after players who make the NHL it is for sure relevant. I'm just saying if you take the guy who's 50% chance of being a 3rd liner, 30% 4th line, and 20% bust you're choosing to fall into that 50% chance of 4th liner or bust. The way you pick shapes the result, not necessarily the position of the pick.

[Da_Hawks]

I would hope that most teams are drafting top 6 players in the first round. All depends on the scout. Some see something completely different then others. Precisely the reason why players drop every year - or rise every year.

The draft is a crap-shoot anyways. Throw enough shit against the wall and eventually something will stick.

[kimmer]

leipsics times past
on paper value might be there
kulikov probably sucks

could essentially turn out to be 17th overall for muzzin which is a clear win now and possibly in the future as well

[Da_Hawks]

leipsics times past
on paper value might be there
kulikov probably sucks

could essentially turn out to be 17th overall for muzzin which is a clear win now and possibly in the future as well

You're a funny guy Kimmer.

[Matthew]

This is the reason i like the lottery. No matter how bad someone makes their team, they arent guaranteed 1st overall a year in advance and are even unlikely to win it. I will really enjoy MY 1st overall pick next year.

nah, it's going to be CAR's 2019 1st. It is destiny.

1 year later and this is true. Thom is BBKL Nostredames!