Vegas Selling Some Vets and Marginal Prospects

[Brian]

Hey, guys. I'm looking for picks/prospects with a decent return for:

Matthew Perrault
Andrew Cogliano

Could move one of Travis Zajac or David Krejci for a solid return.

I'll take pretty much any pick for the following:

Michael Haley
Trevor Lewis
Scott Darling
Joel Hanley
Austin Czarnik
Jordan Gross
Cole Kehler
Jake Ryczek

Lots of other guys are available (who am I kidding, everyone is available, but DeBrincat, Sharangovich, Bouchard, Beaudin and Slavin are likely to be costly). Again, I want to get younger and faster, so picks and prospects are my top priority.

My top prospects lists aren't fully updated yet for the spring/summer, but if you want to get a general feel for how I'd rank them currently, you can check my lists here:

Top Forwards
Top Defensemen

If you register on the site and send me a note, I'll give you full membership access so you can see the entire lists (the regular access is only the top 50).

[KapG]

Hello! No Byfield in your top 50 forwards is crazy.

[kyuss]

looks like an old list without the 2020 draftees

[dave1959]

and Logan Brown at 6?

[KapG]

Now that you mention it, you are probably right. Good catch

[Brian]

That list is from last fall, prior to the draft. The revised version is in the works.

[Da_Hawks]

Have Soda Stream is another league. Curious to know how he was ranked #1. I like Byram at #2 though.

[Brian]

Have Soda Stream is another league. Curious to know how he was ranked #1. I like Byram at #2 though.

Not to derail too much from the original trade block post...

The prospect rankings are based on two primary scores, one objective and one subjective:

The objective score is a weighted algorithm of various inputs, including NHL-equivalent scoring at draft year, D+1, D+2, etc., draft selection, the combined (weighted) average of multiple scouting service pre-draft rankings, size, age at draft, and so on. Each year (D, D+1, D+2, etc.) is weighted differently based on substantial backtesting of actual player development.

The subjective score is made up of personal viewings and external scouting reports on a player's skating, hockey iq, competitiveness, etc. I watch something like 200 hockey games a year, of which maybe 25% are NHL games. I post viewing notes on the website, as well. For games I'm noting, I typically only watch 3 or 4 players on each team and focus only on them. You can find my notes on nearly 1,000 players here. Some players may not have notes listed, and usually that means that when I've watched them play, I just watched and wasn't taking notes. For example, I loved watching the first rounds of the frozen four last weekend, but haven't taken notes on any of the games yet. I've also been building individual player pages (here's an example of Conor Bedard's page), but those pages take a while. Not all noted players have pages, and some player pages don't have notes. But I digress.

The two scores are combined to generate an overall prospect score, and then the players are ranked. The goal of the ranking is to forecast the ultimate potential of each player (regardless of proximity to NHL, etc) so that in 20 years, when all is said and done, the player ranked at number 10 should have had a much more productive career than the player ranked at 20. As noted, the slope isn't linear, so players ranked from 35 to 75, for example, are relatively similar.

I hope to have updated rankings available soon (the forwards list is being finalized) and then I can start on the D rankings. It's a lot of work and the two lists combined include something like 1,300+ players. I do economic forecasting for a living, and let's just say the last 24 months have been a bit, uh, frantic at work. Between Cino-US trade disputes and global pandemics, predicting future economic activity has taken a big bite out of my hockey forecasting time.

And, since this is already long as hell, if anyone wants to do some hockey writing, let me know. I've had two other guys write for my site. One of them went on to write for Dobber for a while, and the other went to Dobber, then to Hockey Writers, then to the Athletic and even to write for the San Jose Sharks for their game programs. I can't promise anything more than a place to publish your writing, but it's still fun to do.

Ugh. Enough. If you've read all of this, then you should send me an offer for Perrault.

[CasperX22]

Well this is fun

[Brian]

Well this is fun

At least you’ll always know what I think I about a prospect!