Re: FLA/PIT LITTLE JOE!
PostedCOLON Tue Jun 28, 2011 2:25 pm
better than 6
The Ultimate Fantasy Hockey Experience
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+2MSP4LYFE wroteCOLONNick, those numbers are misleading. Joe Pavelski is 6th on the Sharks (among forwards) in ESTOI/G, but second in both SHTOI/G and PPTOI/G. All of which add up to the third most minutes per game among SJS forwards. It is pretty clear that Pavelski is one of the go to guys in SJS, his low ESTOI totals are a mere byproduct of being the go to option on both the pp and pk with Marleau.
In regards to Shoalzie's point about face-off's, I disagree completely. Pavelski is second on the Sharks in both FOT and FO% (second by only 0.1%), despite playing only 74 games last season. The same held true last season. Why on earth would Joe Pavelski suddenly drop down to the third face-off option, or the wing as you stated? It makes no sense.
Joe Pavelski is not the third liner by any definition. He plays top 6 minutes ES, is top 2 special teams, and a top line forward in terms of total time on ice. I'm not sure what the need is to label him a third liner, when he doesn't play third line in any situations.facey wroteCOLONKareem that is what I said. He's 3rd line only if you count down the SJS lines...it's like calling Briere the 3rd line centre in Philly. There is no reason via stats or having watched them to expect him to move to the wing. He'll be their '3rd' line centre and be used often on special teams and in tight games. Basically I didn't like the analysis of the trade.
Is he as skilled as Hank, nope and I don't think anyone would say that. However he is more well-rounded, younger, and a nicer cap hit. The last point being of the upmost concern for Shiv to make this deal.
What line does Marleau centre?facey wroteCOLONJoe Thornton players line 1 even strength.
Logan Couture centred line 2
Joe Pavelski plays centre.
which line does he centre kareem? linemates?
MSP4LYFE wroteCOLONIn regards to Shoalzie's point about face-off's, I disagree completely. Pavelski is second on the Sharks in both FOT and FO% (second by only 0.1%), despite playing only 74 games last season. The same held true last season. Why on earth would Joe Pavelski suddenly drop down to the third face-off option, or the wing as you stated? It makes no sense.
Actually Pavelski centered line two, ergo the fact that he has 132 more FOT, despite playing in 5 less games. Those ESTOI/G figures don't lie, and Pavelski is 6th among all forwards, all of 12 seconds behind Logan Couture...Or did Pavelski get all those FOT on the pk?facey wroteCOLONJoe Thornton players line 1 even strength.
Logan Couture centred line 2
Joe Pavelski plays centre.
which line does he centre kareem? linemates?
It is pretty clear that Marleau will be the one moving to the wing, as he has the last two seasons. Pavelski is the second best center on the team, and it has been proven time and time again...JTFR, you were wrong, Pavelski was second among all Sharks forwards in FOT in the playoffs, 64 more than Couture (in only 18 games). I am unsure why you and Nick believe Couture will be centering the second line (ES) over Pavelski? It was an experiment the Sharks tried a month into last season, and never since. The numbers bear that out quite clearly.Shoalzie wroteCOLONMSP4LYFE wroteCOLONIn regards to Shoalzie's point about face-off's, I disagree completely. Pavelski is second on the Sharks in both FOT and FO% (second by only 0.1%), despite playing only 74 games last season. The same held true last season. Why on earth would Joe Pavelski suddenly drop down to the third face-off option, or the wing as you stated? It makes no sense.
Uh, they just traded one of their top 6 wingers and the roster is oversatured with centers. Between Thornton, Marleau, Couture and Pavelski...someone is going to play the wing. Heatley and Clowe (outside of Setoguchi) are their only natural wingers in the top 6. McLellan made it a point to put two guys on the ice (especially during the series with the Wings) that can take draws so Pavelski can easily play the wing on a line with Thornton or Couture and mix in on faceoffs depending on where the draw is taking place. Pavelski is good on draws and I'm not saying he won't take them anymore...it just might decrease if his spot in the lineup changes (ie--if he moves to the wing to make up for trading away Setoguchi).
Frequency Strength Line Combination
13.87% EV 17 MITCHELL,TORREY - 8 PAVELSKI,JOE - 20 WELLWOOD,KYLE
9.44% PP 15 HEATLEY,DANY - 12 MARLEAU,PATRICK - 8 PAVELSKI,JOE - 19 THORNTON,JOE
7.08% EV 29 CLOWE,RYANE - 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 8 PAVELSKI,JOE
6.24% SH 12 MARLEAU,PATRICK - 8 PAVELSKI,JOE
6.04% EV 29 CLOWE,RYANE - 8 PAVELSKI,JOE - 16 SETOGUCHI,DEVIN
4.3% EV 64 MCGINN,JAMIE - 8 PAVELSKI,JOE - 16 SETOGUCHI,DEVIN
3.58% EV 64 MCGINN,JAMIE - 17 MITCHELL,TORREY - 8 PAVELSKI,JOE
2.98% EV 15 HEATLEY,DANY - 17 MITCHELL,TORREY - 8 PAVELSKI,JOE
2.75% EV 12 MARLEAU,PATRICK - 8 PAVELSKI,JOE - 19 THORNTON,JOE
2.17% EV 12 MARLEAU,PATRICK - 8 PAVELSKI,JOE - 16 SETOGUCHI,DEVIN
1.94% EV 15 HEATLEY,DANY - 12 MARLEAU,PATRICK - 8 PAVELSKI,JOE
1.91% EV 29 CLOWE,RYANE - 17 MITCHELL,TORREY - 8 PAVELSKI,JOE
1.85% EV 29 CLOWE,RYANE - 15 HEATLEY,DANY - 8 PAVELSKI,JOE
1.76% PP 12 MARLEAU,PATRICK - 8 PAVELSKI,JOE - 16 SETOGUCHI,DEVIN - 19 THORNTON,JOE
1.27% EV 29 CLOWE,RYANE - 12 MARLEAU,PATRICK - 8 PAVELSKI,JOE
1.27% SH 15 HEATLEY,DANY - 12 MARLEAU,PATRICK - 8 PAVELSKI,JOE - 19 THORNTON,JOE
1.19% EV 12 MARLEAU,PATRICK - 17 MITCHELL,TORREY - 8 PAVELSKI,JOE
1.15% EV 43 MCCARTHY,JOHN - 17 MITCHELL,TORREY - 8 PAVELSKI,JOE
1.13% EV 12 MARLEAU,PATRICK - 64 MCGINN,JAMIE - 8 PAVELSKI,JOE
1.13% EV 55 EAGER,BEN - 17 MITCHELL,TORREY - 8 PAVELSKI,JOE
Frequency Strength Line Combination
15.19% EV 29 CLOWE,RYANE - 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 15 HEATLEY,DANY
12.87% EV 29 CLOWE,RYANE - 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 78 FERRIERO,BENN
7.57% EV 29 CLOWE,RYANE - 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 8 PAVELSKI,JOE
4.37% EV 29 CLOWE,RYANE - 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 20 WELLWOOD,KYLE
4.33% EV 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 16 SETOGUCHI,DEVIN - 19 THORNTON,JOE
3.73% PP 29 CLOWE,RYANE - 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 16 SETOGUCHI,DEVIN
3.43% EV 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 15 HEATLEY,DANY - 12 MARLEAU,PATRICK
2.39% EV 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 64 MCGINN,JAMIE - 17 MITCHELL,TORREY
2.36% EV 29 CLOWE,RYANE - 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 10 MAYERS,JAMAL
2.19% EV 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 15 HEATLEY,DANY - 16 SETOGUCHI,DEVIN
2.19% EV 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 15 HEATLEY,DANY - 19 THORNTON,JOE
2.04% EV 29 CLOWE,RYANE - 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 12 MARLEAU,PATRICK
1.95% EV 29 CLOWE,RYANE - 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 16 SETOGUCHI,DEVIN
1.8% EV 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 55 EAGER,BEN - 20 WELLWOOD,KYLE
1.65% EV 29 CLOWE,RYANE - 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 55 EAGER,BEN
1.44% EV 29 CLOWE,RYANE - 39 COUTURE,LOGAN
1.41% SH 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 10 MAYERS,JAMAL
1.13% EV 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 64 MCGINN,JAMIE - 16 SETOGUCHI,DEVIN
1.1% PP 29 CLOWE,RYANE - 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 78 FERRIERO,BENN
1.08% EV 39 COUTURE,LOGAN - 78 FERRIERO,BENN - 15 HEATLEY,DANY
Total TOI means nothing because of the disparity in GP, that goes without saying really. With Pavelski out of the lineup Couture's minutes went up while Pavelski's remained static, and with Pavelski out of the lineup it stands to reason that Couture would get more playing time and FOT than usual.facey wroteCOLONhe played 100 less minutes even strength Kareem. 12 second less a game...
The best way to judge this statement is by looking at playoff numbers. Pavelski averaged over 21 minutes of total time on ice, and Couture under 20. No matter how you slice it, during the season, or at the end of it, Pavelski was the second line center on the SJS Sharks.facey wroteCOLONand remember, couture started the year as a rookie, by the end of the year was knocking on 20min most games.
If by pig headed you mean, right, than I concur.facey wroteCOLONHowever you continue to prove how pig-headed you are when you're PMSing. i said, and have continued to say '3rd' line... meaning he's not actually a 3rd line centre, only my the classical and narrow definition of working through the lines.
facey wroteCOLON
He'll stay exactly where he was this past season IMO, where he put up career # despite playing '3rd' line (even strength), and that allows him to be PP1 (although that might be what changes with Burns), and PK1.